“Nobody should give or receive any career advice right now. Everyone is broadly underestimating the scope and scale of change and the high variance of the future.” This opinion is from “Roon” on X, quoted in Jason Wei’s recent presentation on artificial intelligence.
The statement is both wise and useless. It is wise because we are, indeed, in times of great change. The old, standard career advice may not work, as AI changes how we learn and what skills will be useful in the coming economy. (Plus globalization may be dying, population growth is dwindling, and mobility has dropped.)
But the statement is useless for young people thinking about colleges, careers and first jobs. What are they supposed to do? Does Roon recommend that they spend a year on the beach and wait for things to settle down? And wouldn’t that itself be career advice?
People are making career decisions now. That’s unavoidable. Similarly, as an economist I’m often asked how I can possibly make forecasts in such uncertain times. The question sounds sensible, except that business leaders are making decisions today: Invest in new equipment, revamp an internal process, hire or fire workers. Decisions must be made every day. Nobody expects a forecast to be perfect, but decisions should be made with the best vision that we have right now.
Career advice for uncertain times mirrors business advice in an uncertain economy. I advise business leaders to be ready to pivot—shifting in a different direction if market conditions dictate. A business pivot could mean changing products, or changing how a product is made, or changing how it is sold. For an individual thinking about a career, a pivot could involve using existing skills in a new industry, or gaining new skills in a familiar industry, or starting completely fresh.
What skills will be valuable in the coming decades? Roon followed that first post with additional tweets, including “Stay nimble and have fun,” That is valuable, both the first part and the second. Staying nimble has been important in years past, as many occupations died out. It will be important in the future as changes continue to increase demand for workers in some categories while reducing demand in others.
How does a young person—or an mature person wondering about the future—be nimble? First, awareness of broad trends enables a person to spot opportunities. Read or skim articles about industries, occupations and tasks that seem to be doing well or on the verge of increasing demand.
Second, have a broad tool kit of skills. I have suggested six one-semester college courses that will be valuable (economics, statistics, computer programming, calculus, communications and financial planning and management). The communications angle is very important. Technical skills may help get a first job. Communication skills help get a first promotion. That includes oral presentations as well as small group discussions. Writing capability should include short—like texts and emails—as well as long articles.